Vinicius
Junior
LWBrazil · Real Madrid
Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)
Player dossierLaLiga
ViniciusJunior
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- Real Madrid
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Vini Jr. at €140M. Model A, which never saw Vini Jr. during training, estimates €175M: the market value is 20% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €106M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 110
- Minutes
- 8,788
- Goals
- 43
- Assists
- 32
- Started
- 97/110
- Min / app
- 80
- Cards
- 27Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vini Jr.…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €140M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
8,788 this player2,242 attacker median100th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €10M
- Oct 2017
- Peak
- €200M
- Oct 2024
- Model target
- €140M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 25
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €140M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-10-30 | €10M | CR Flamengo |
| 2017-12-07 | €20M | CR Flamengo |
| 2018-05-23 | €35M | CR Flamengo |
| 2018-12-21 | €35M | Real Madrid |
| 2019-02-28 | €70M | Real Madrid |
| 2019-06-11 | €70M | Real Madrid |
| 2019-12-20 | €50M | Real Madrid |
| 2020-04-08 | €45M | Real Madrid |
| 2020-10-08 | €50M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-01-05 | €40M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-06-10 | €40M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-10-13 | €50M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-12-30 | €100M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-06-03 | €100M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-09-23 | €120M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-11-07 | €120M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-06-13 | €150M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-12-22 | €150M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-06-07 | €180M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-10-11 | €200M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-12-27 | €200M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-06-09 | €170M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-10-02 | €150M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-12-12 | €150M | Real Madrid |
| 2026-06-05 | €140M | Real Madrid |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.225
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →LaLiga509 players · median €4M
4th highest observed value among 509 LaLiga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Joint 5th highest observed value among 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Vini Jr. appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- PedriCMFC Barcelona · LaLiga€150M
- BellinghamAMReal Madrid · LaLiga€130M
- MbappéCFReal Madrid · LaLiga€180M
- AlvarezCFAtlético de Madrid · LaLiga€100M
- KvaratskheliaLWParis Saint-Germain · attackers€140M
- OliseRWBayern Munich · attackers€150M
- DouéRWParis Saint-Germain · attackers€120M
- SakaRWArsenal FC · attackers€110M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).