Dominik
Kotarski
GKCroatia · FC Copenhagen
Player dossierSuperliga
DominikKotarski
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- FC Copenhagen
- League
- Superliga
- Nationality
- Croatia
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 25 May 2026
SuperligaReading the valuation
The market values Kotarski at €5M. Model A, which never saw Kotarski during training, estimates €7.8M: the market value is 36% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €17.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 81
- Minutes
- 7,350
- Started
- 81/81
- Min / app
- 91
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kotarski…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
37% this player0% goalkeeper median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Mar 2018
- Peak
- €9M
- May 2025
- Model target
- €5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 25
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €5M, FC Copenhagen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-01 | €200k | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2018-06-29 | €250k | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2019-01-21 | €250k | Ajax Amsterdam U21 |
| 2019-07-03 | €500k | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2019-12-18 | €1M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2020-01-17 | €1.5M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.3M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2020-06-29 | €1.3M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2020-10-14 | €1.3M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2020-12-31 | €1M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2021-03-16 | €800k | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2021-05-19 | €800k | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2021-12-30 | €1M | HNK Gorica |
| 2022-03-22 | €1.2M | HNK Gorica |
| 2022-06-06 | €1.5M | HNK Gorica |
| 2022-11-07 | €2M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2023-05-22 | €2.5M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2023-09-21 | €3M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2023-12-20 | €4M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2024-05-30 | €5M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2024-09-26 | €7M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2024-12-18 | €8M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2025-05-23 | €9M | PAOK Thessaloniki |
| 2025-12-15 | €6M | FC Copenhagen |
| 2026-05-25 | €5M | FC Copenhagen |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.445
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Superliga256 players · median €800k
Valued above 93% of the 256 Superliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 79% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Kotarski appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GodfreyCBBröndby IF · Superliga€5M
- MoukokoCFFC Copenhagen · Superliga€5M
- LindCFFC Nordsjaelland · Superliga€5M
- JørgensenCMViborg FF · Superliga€5M
- PopeGKNewcastle United · goalkeepers€5M
- ArrizabalagaGKArsenal FC · goalkeepers€5M
- WellenreutherGKFeyenoord Rotterdam · goalkeepers€5M
- BayındırGKManchester United · goalkeepers€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).