FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Alexandru

Mățan

AMRomania · Panetolikos

№ 368942Emerging €664k +1.00

Player dossierSuper League

AlexandruMățan

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Panetolikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Romania
Age
26
Height
167 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mățan at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Mățan during training, estimates €664k: the market value is 171% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.71. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.00A €664k▲ +0.53B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
2,271
Goals
4
Assists
3
Started
24/31
Min / app
73
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mățan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €664k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Alexandru Mățan's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 74th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 43rd, Starts 66th, Minutes, last 365 days 73rd, European club minutes 30th74thGoals60thAssists43rdMinutes66thStarts73rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.16 this player0.08 midfielder median74th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2016
Peak
€4M
Jun 2024
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
8 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MPanetolikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Panetolikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-06-01€50kFC Viitorul Constanta U19
2016-12-21€50kFC Viitorul Constanta U19
2017-06-17€50kFC Viitorul Constanta U19
2017-09-29€150kFC Viitorul Constanta
2017-12-27€250kFC Viitorul Constanta
2018-06-14€450kFC Viitorul Constanta
2018-12-23€450kFC Viitorul Constanta
2019-06-18€450kFC Viitorul Constanta
2019-12-21€450kFC Voluntari
2020-04-08€400kFC Voluntari
2020-08-05€550kFC Voluntari
2020-12-18€850kFC Viitorul Constanta
2021-04-16€1.5MColumbus Crew
2021-07-09€1.5MColumbus Crew
2021-11-09€1.5MColumbus Crew
2022-06-15€1.3MColumbus Crew
2022-12-21€1MFC Rapid 1923
2023-08-22€2MColumbus Crew
2023-12-18€3.5MColumbus Crew
2024-06-13€4MColumbus Crew
2024-12-12€4MColumbus Crew
2025-05-29€2.8MDibba Al-Hisn SC
2025-09-23€2.5MPanetolikos
2025-12-12€2MPanetolikos
2026-06-04€1.8MPanetolikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.997

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 77% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 44% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mățan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).