FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Francisco

Tinaglini

GKUruguay · Panserraikos

№ 368693Emerging €513k −0.25

Player dossierSuper League

FranciscoTinaglini

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Panserraikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Uruguay
Age
27
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tinaglini at €400k. Model A, which never saw Tinaglini during training, estimates €513k: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €763k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.25A €513k▼ −0.65B €763k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
1,959
Started
22/22
Min / app
89
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tinaglini…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €513k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Francisco Tinaglini's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 58th, European club minutes 32nd38thMinutes62ndStarts58thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Feb 2017
Peak
€400k
Jun 2025
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
4 club changes
Jun 2026€400kPanserraikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Panserraikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-02-22€100kCA River Plate Montevideo
2019-03-03€150kCA River Plate Montevideo
2021-04-10€150kMontevideo City Torque
2021-09-10€150kMontevideo City Torque
2022-01-01€150kMontevideo City Torque
2022-06-02€300kMontevideo City Torque
2022-11-12€200kMontevideo City Torque
2023-07-17€150kClub Atlético San Martín (Tucumán)
2023-12-28€200kMontevideo City Torque
2024-06-25€300kMontevideo City Torque
2024-12-13€350kMontevideo City Torque
2025-06-10€400kMontevideo City Torque
2025-12-12€400kPanserraikos
2026-06-04€400kPanserraikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.250

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 29% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 21% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tinaglini appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).