FairValue

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Vladyslav

Dubinchak

LBUkraine · Dynamo Kyiv

№ 366723Established €1.7M +0.39

Player dossierPremier Liha

VladyslavDubinchak

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Dynamo Kyiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
27
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dubinchak at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Dubinchak during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 48% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.48. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.39A €1.7M▼ −0.58B €4.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
3,555
Goals
0
Assists
7
Started
39/51
Min / app
70
Cards
14Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dubinchak…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Vladyslav Dubinchak's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 38th, Minutes, last 365 days 39th, European club minutes 92nd18thGoals93rdAssists63rdMinutes38thStarts39thRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.18 this player0.04 defender median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2018
Peak
€3M
Jun 2025
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
3 club changes
Jun 2026€2.5MDynamo KyivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, Dynamo Kyiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-08-06€200kArsenal Kyiv
2018-12-10€500kArsenal Kyiv
2019-06-20€500kArsenal Kyiv
2020-01-08€500kKarpaty Lviv
2020-04-08€450kKarpaty Lviv
2020-09-04€500kSC Dnipro-1
2021-01-14€500kSC Dnipro-1
2021-06-07€700kSC Dnipro-1
2021-12-20€1MSC Dnipro-1
2022-05-18€1MDynamo Kyiv
2022-09-06€1.5MDynamo Kyiv
2022-12-06€2MDynamo Kyiv
2023-06-21€2MDynamo Kyiv
2023-12-11€2.5MDynamo Kyiv
2024-06-06€2.5MDynamo Kyiv
2024-12-17€2.5MDynamo Kyiv
2025-06-10€3MDynamo Kyiv
2025-12-18€2.5MDynamo Kyiv
2026-06-02€2.5MDynamo Kyiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.389

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 89% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dubinchak appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).