FairValue

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Portrait of Dan Ndoye

Dan

Ndoye

RWSwitzerland · Nottingham Forest

№ 365108World Class €22.5M +0.35

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

DanNdoye

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Nottingham Forest
League
Premier League
Nationality
Switzerland
Age
25
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ndoye at €32M. Model A, which never saw Ndoye during training, estimates €22.5M: the market value is 42% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €19M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.35A €22.5M▲ +0.52B €19M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
78
Minutes
5,036
Goals
11
Assists
8
Started
59/78
Min / app
65
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ndoye…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €32M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €32MModel A €22.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dan Ndoye's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 35th, Assists per 90 49th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 77th, Minutes, last 365 days 73rd, European club minutes 92nd35thGoals49thAssists91stMinutes77thStarts73rdRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

28% this player0% attacker median92nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Jun 2019
Peak
€40M
Oct 2025
Model target
€32M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
4 club changes
Jun 2026€32MNottingham ForestValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €32M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-04€600kFC Lausanne-Sport
2019-10-07€1MFC Lausanne-Sport
2020-01-06€1MFC Lausanne-Sport
2020-04-08€900kFC Lausanne-Sport
2020-07-31€1.3MFC Lausanne-Sport
2020-10-15€2MOGC Nice
2021-01-07€4MOGC Nice
2021-05-25€4MOGC Nice
2022-01-03€4MFC Basel 1893
2022-06-08€4MFC Basel 1893
2022-11-10€3.5MFC Basel 1893
2023-06-07€3.5MFC Basel 1893
2023-10-11€8.5MBologna FC 1909
2023-12-20€10MBologna FC 1909
2024-06-05€14MBologna FC 1909
2024-07-18€22MBologna FC 1909
2024-12-18€25MBologna FC 1909
2025-06-17€35MBologna FC 1909
2025-10-17€40MNottingham Forest
2025-12-09€40MNottingham Forest
2026-03-09€35MNottingham Forest
2026-06-03€32MNottingham Forest

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.354

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 78% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 94% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ndoye appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).