FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Moise Kean

Moise

Kean

CFItaly · ACF Fiorentina

№ 364135World Class €18.5M +0.55

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

MoiseKean

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
ACF Fiorentina
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
26
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kean at €32M. Model A, which never saw Kean during training, estimates €18.5M: the market value is 73% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.73. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.55A €18.5M▲ +1.49B €7.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
5,023
Goals
30
Assists
6
Started
57/62
Min / app
81
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kean…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €32M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €32MModel A €18.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Moise Kean's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 96th, Minutes, last 365 days 76th, European club minutes 62nd91stGoals35thAssists91stMinutes96thStarts76thRecent62ndEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player59% attacker median96th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Nov 2016
Peak
€50M
Jun 2025
Model target
€32M
May 2026
Valuations
28
6 club changes
May 2026€32MACF FiorentinaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €32M, ACF Fiorentina. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-11-14€600kJuventus Primavera
2017-06-26€1.5MJuventus Primavera
2017-10-13€2.5MHellas Verona
2017-12-29€7MHellas Verona
2018-06-07€12MHellas Verona
2018-12-20€15MJuventus FC
2019-06-06€40MJuventus FC
2019-12-10€32MEverton FC
2020-03-09€28MEverton FC
2020-04-08€25MEverton FC
2020-10-15€25MParis Saint-Germain
2021-01-07€30MParis Saint-Germain
2021-04-09€35MParis Saint-Germain
2021-05-25€35MParis Saint-Germain
2021-12-28€32MJuventus FC
2022-03-15€28MJuventus FC
2022-06-07€24MJuventus FC
2022-11-11€20MJuventus FC
2023-06-15€18MJuventus FC
2023-12-20€18MJuventus FC
2024-06-05€14MJuventus FC
2024-10-18€18MACF Fiorentina
2024-12-18€30MACF Fiorentina
2025-03-25€40MACF Fiorentina
2025-06-17€50MACF Fiorentina
2025-12-23€45MACF Fiorentina
2026-03-24€40MACF Fiorentina
2026-05-29€32MACF Fiorentina

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.547

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 94% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 94% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kean appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).