FairValue

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Portrait of Gabriel Jesus

Gabriel

Jesus

CFBrazil · Arsenal FC

№ 363205Elite €19.1M −0.12

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

GabrielJesus

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
29
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jesus at €17M. Model A, which never saw Jesus during training, estimates €19.1M: the market value is 11% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €19.1M▲ +0.75B €8.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
1,891
Goals
9
Assists
3
Started
19/50
Min / app
38
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jesus…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €17M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €17MModel A €19.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Gabriel Jesus's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 49th, Minutes, two years 42nd, Starts 18th, Minutes, last 365 days 37th, European club minutes 86th80thGoals49thAssists42ndMinutes18thStarts37thRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

22% this player0% attacker median86th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€750k
May 2015
Peak
€80M
May 2018
Model target
€17M
Jun 2026
Valuations
32
2 club changes
Jun 2026€17MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €17M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-05-31€750kSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2015-09-11€2MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2015-12-15€4MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2016-05-27€8MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2016-07-23€16MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2017-02-20€25MManchester City
2017-06-28€30MManchester City
2017-10-23€45MManchester City
2018-01-02€70MManchester City
2018-05-28€80MManchester City
2018-12-19€70MManchester City
2019-06-13€70MManchester City
2019-12-10€70MManchester City
2020-04-08€56MManchester City
2020-10-13€60MManchester City
2021-03-18€60MManchester City
2021-06-08€60MManchester City
2021-12-23€60MManchester City
2022-03-29€50MManchester City
2022-06-15€50MManchester City
2022-09-15€65MArsenal FC
2022-11-03€75MArsenal FC
2023-06-20€75MArsenal FC
2023-12-19€70MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€65MArsenal FC
2024-10-01€55MArsenal FC
2024-12-16€45MArsenal FC
2025-03-18€40MArsenal FC
2025-05-30€32MArsenal FC
2025-10-17€25MArsenal FC
2025-12-09€20MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€17MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.116

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 49% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€17MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 84% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€17MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jesus appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).