FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Maryan

Shved

RWUkraine · Shakhtar Donetsk

№ 359247Emerging €1.8M −0.82

Player dossierPremier Liha

MaryanShved

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Shakhtar Donetsk
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
28
Height
171 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Shved at €800k. Model A, which never saw Shved during training, estimates €1.8M: the market value is 56% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.82A €1.8M▼ −0.40B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
668
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
5/20
Min / app
33
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Shved…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €1.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Maryan Shved's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 51st, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 7th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 69th51stGoals6thAssists8thMinutes7thStarts6thRecent69thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

9% this player0% attacker median69th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Jun 2015
Peak
€2M
Dec 2018
Model target
€800k
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
5 club changes
Jun 2026€800kShakhtar DonetskValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €800k, Shakhtar Donetsk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-06-07€600kKarpaty Lviv
2016-07-15€600kSevilla Atlético
2017-01-24€600kSevilla Atlético
2017-06-29€600kSevilla Atlético
2017-08-17€400kSevilla Atlético
2018-01-12€300kKarpaty Lviv
2018-08-06€500kKarpaty Lviv
2018-12-10€2MKarpaty Lviv
2019-08-20€2MCeltic FC
2020-02-05€1.5MCeltic FC
2020-04-08€1.2MCeltic FC
2020-07-21€800kCeltic FC
2020-10-16€800kKV Mechelen
2021-01-04€650kKV Mechelen
2021-03-17€1MKV Mechelen
2021-06-07€1MKV Mechelen
2022-01-06€900kKV Mechelen
2022-04-12€900kKV Mechelen
2022-12-06€1.2MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-06-21€1.2MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-12-11€1MShakhtar Donetsk
2024-06-06€1.2MShakhtar Donetsk
2024-12-17€1MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-06-10€1MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-12-18€800kShakhtar Donetsk
2026-06-02€800kShakhtar Donetsk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.817

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 71% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 25% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Shved appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).