Rafael

Leão

LWPortugal · AC Milan

№ 357164World Class €30M +0.51

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

RafaelLeão

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club: AC Milan
League: Serie A
Nationality: Portugal
Age: 26
Height: 188 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Leão at €50M. Model A, which never saw Leão during training, estimates €30M: the market value is 67% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.67. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €22.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 81
Minutes: 5,467
Goals: 22
Assists: 16
Started: 63/81
Min / app: 67
Cards: 12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Leão…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,467 this player2,242 attacker median94th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €500k; Sept 2017
Peak: €90M; Jun 2023
Model target: €50M; May 2026
Valuations: 28; 3 club changes

May 2026€50MAC MilanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €50M, AC Milan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2017-09-08	€500k	Sporting CP B
2018-02-23	€1.5M	Sporting CP
2018-04-16	€4M	Sporting CP
2018-06-13	€6M	Sporting CP
2018-12-17	€6M	LOSC Lille
2019-03-07	€12M	LOSC Lille
2019-06-03	€15M	LOSC Lille
2019-10-08	€22M	AC Milan
2019-12-12	€22M	AC Milan
2020-04-08	€20M	AC Milan
2020-08-25	€24M	AC Milan
2020-10-29	€28M	AC Milan
2020-12-29	€28M	AC Milan
2021-06-03	€25M	AC Milan
2021-12-28	€35M	AC Milan
2022-03-15	€50M	AC Milan
2022-06-07	€70M	AC Milan
2022-11-11	€85M	AC Milan
2023-03-21	€80M	AC Milan
2023-06-15	€90M	AC Milan
2023-12-20	€90M	AC Milan
2024-06-05	€90M	AC Milan
2024-10-18	€75M	AC Milan
2024-12-18	€75M	AC Milan
2025-06-17	€70M	AC Milan
2025-12-23	€70M	AC Milan
2026-03-24	€65M	AC Milan
2026-05-29	€50M	AC Milan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.512

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Joint 6th highest observed value among 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 97% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Leão appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).