FairValue

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David

Akintola

RWNigeria · Hull City

№ 353775Emerging €2.9M −0.89

Player dossierPremier League

DavidAkintola

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Hull City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Nigeria
Age
29
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Akintola at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Akintola during training, estimates €2.9M: the market value is 59% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.89A €2.9M▼ −0.33B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
3,923
Goals
6
Assists
9
Started
47/54
Min / app
73
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Akintola…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €2.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

David Akintola's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 72nd, Minutes, two years 80th, Starts 91st, Minutes, last 365 days 55th, European club minutes 28th21stGoals72ndAssists80thMinutes91stStarts55thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

87% this player59% attacker median91st percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2015
Peak
€2.6M
Oct 2022
Model target
€1.2M
Dec 2025
Valuations
29
9 club changes
Dec 2025€1.2MHull CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.2M, Hull City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-02€50kFC Midtjylland
2016-01-21€50kFC Midtjylland
2016-08-12€50kFC Midtjylland
2016-12-12€100kFC Midtjylland
2017-12-23€150kFK Jerv
2018-09-10€500kFK Haugesund
2018-12-30€700kFK Haugesund
2019-12-29€700kRosenborg BK
2020-04-08€550kOmonia Nicosia
2020-07-31€500kFC Midtjylland
2020-12-23€1MHatayspor
2021-03-16€2MHatayspor
2021-05-21€2.4MHatayspor
2021-10-12€2.4MAdana Demirspor
2022-01-04€2.4MAdana Demirspor
2022-03-31€2.3MAdana Demirspor
2022-06-01€2MAdana Demirspor
2022-10-27€2.6MAdana Demirspor
2023-03-14€2.4MAdana Demirspor
2023-06-08€2.4MAdana Demirspor
2023-09-27€2.2MAdana Demirspor
2023-12-21€1.6MAdana Demirspor
2024-03-15€1.6MCaykur Rizespor
2024-05-31€1.6MCaykur Rizespor
2024-10-04€1.4MCaykur Rizespor
2024-12-23€1.5MCaykur Rizespor
2025-03-20€1.5MCaykur Rizespor
2025-06-18€1.4MCaykur Rizespor
2025-12-03€1.2MHull City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.895

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 6% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Akintola appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).