JoanSastre

RBRight-BackDefender

Club: PAOK Thessaloniki
League: Super League
Nationality: Spain
Age: 29
Height: 174 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sastre at €800k. Model A, which never saw Sastre during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 60% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 37
Minutes: 2,596
Goals: 1
Assists: 3
Started: 29/37
Min / app: 70
Cards: 5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sastre…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

22% this player0% defender median87th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Aug 2016
Peak: €2M; Jun 2019
Model target: €800k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 24; 2 club changes

Jun 2026€800kPAOK ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €800k, PAOK Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2016-08-01	€50k	RCD Mallorca B
2016-10-27	€100k	RCD Mallorca B
2017-02-02	€200k	RCD Mallorca B
2017-06-05	€200k	RCD Mallorca B
2018-01-01	€800k	RCD Mallorca
2018-05-30	€1M	RCD Mallorca
2019-02-19	€1M	RCD Mallorca
2019-06-29	€2M	RCD Mallorca
2019-12-20	€2M	RCD Mallorca
2020-04-08	€1.6M	RCD Mallorca
2020-10-08	€1.6M	RCD Mallorca
2021-01-08	€1.6M	RCD Mallorca
2021-06-24	€2M	RCD Mallorca
2021-12-30	€1.6M	RCD Mallorca
2022-06-09	€1.8M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2022-11-07	€1.5M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2023-05-22	€1.5M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2023-12-20	€1.2M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2024-05-30	€1.5M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2024-12-18	€1.3M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2025-05-23	€1.3M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2025-12-12	€1M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2026-03-06	€900k	PAOK Thessaloniki
2026-06-04	€800k	PAOK Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.923

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 60% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 29% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Sastre appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).