FairValue

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Portrait of Alexander Isak

Alexander

Isak

CFSweden · Liverpool FC

№ 349066World Class €38.7M +0.79

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AlexanderIsak

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Sweden
Age
26
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Isak at €85M. Model A, which never saw Isak during training, estimates €38.7M: the market value is 120% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.79A €38.7M▲ +1.99B €11.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
59
Minutes
3,983
Goals
28
Assists
7
Started
49/59
Min / app
68
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Isak…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €85M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €85MModel A €38.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Alexander Isak's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 54th, Minutes, two years 81st, Starts 87th, Minutes, last 365 days 39th, European club minutes 66th96thGoals54thAssists81stMinutes87thStarts39thRecent66thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.63 this player0.26 attacker median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Jun 2016
Peak
€140M
Oct 2025
Model target
€85M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
5 club changes
Jun 2026€85MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €85M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-06-17€400kAIK
2016-12-11€1.8MAIK
2017-02-07€6MBorussia Dortmund
2017-06-19€6MBorussia Dortmund
2017-12-28€6MBorussia Dortmund
2018-06-05€6MBorussia Dortmund
2018-10-22€4.5MBorussia Dortmund
2018-12-18€3MBorussia Dortmund
2019-06-12€8MWillem II Tilburg
2019-12-20€10MReal Sociedad
2020-02-11€25MReal Sociedad
2020-04-08€22.5MReal Sociedad
2020-10-08€22MReal Sociedad
2021-01-05€22MReal Sociedad
2021-03-19€30MReal Sociedad
2021-05-31€40MReal Sociedad
2021-12-30€40MReal Sociedad
2022-06-03€30MReal Sociedad
2022-09-15€50MNewcastle United
2022-11-03€50MNewcastle United
2023-06-20€70MNewcastle United
2023-12-19€70MNewcastle United
2024-05-27€75MNewcastle United
2024-12-16€75MNewcastle United
2025-03-18€100MNewcastle United
2025-05-30€120MNewcastle United
2025-10-17€140MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€120MLiverpool FC
2026-03-09€100MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€85MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.788

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 98% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€85MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 99% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€85MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Isak appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).