FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Junya Ito

Junya

Ito

RWJapan · KRC Genk

№ 348791Established €1.2M +0.93

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPro League

JunyaIto

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
KRC Genk
League
Pro League
Nationality
Japan
Age
33
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ito at €3M. Model A, which never saw Ito during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 153% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.93A €1.2M▲ +0.62B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
4,996
Goals
11
Assists
10
Started
59/69
Min / app
72
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ito…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Junya Ito's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 35th, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 82nd, European club minutes 71st35thGoals63rdAssists91stMinutes89thStarts82ndRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,996 this player2,242 attacker median91st percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2015
Peak
€10M
Mar 2023
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
4 club changes
Jun 2026€3MKRC GenkValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, KRC Genk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-02-12€50kVentforet Kofu
2015-07-01€200kVentforet Kofu
2016-02-25€400kKashiwa Reysol
2017-03-25€600kKashiwa Reysol
2018-01-05€1.1MKashiwa Reysol
2019-01-05€2MKashiwa Reysol
2019-06-10€4.5MKRC Genk
2019-12-13€4.5MKRC Genk
2020-03-30€5.5MKRC Genk
2020-04-08€4.5MKRC Genk
2020-10-16€4MKRC Genk
2021-01-04€6.5MKRC Genk
2021-06-07€8MKRC Genk
2022-01-06€7.5MKRC Genk
2022-04-12€7.5MKRC Genk
2022-09-19€8.5MStade Reims
2022-11-02€9MStade Reims
2023-03-27€10MStade Reims
2023-06-27€10MStade Reims
2023-12-18€10MStade Reims
2024-06-03€8MStade Reims
2024-12-10€8MStade Reims
2025-06-03€6MStade Reims
2025-10-01€5MKRC Genk
2025-12-10€3.5MKRC Genk
2026-06-04€3MKRC Genk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.929

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 67% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ito appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).