FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Danel

Sinani

AMLuxembourg · FC St. Pauli

№ 346499Established €2.7M +0.10

Player dossierBundesliga

DanelSinani

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC St. Pauli
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Luxembourg
Age
29
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sinani at €3M. Model A, which never saw Sinani during training, estimates €2.7M: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €2.7M▼ −0.02B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
3,543
Goals
7
Assists
4
Started
39/60
Min / app
59
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sinani…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €2.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Danel Sinani's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 79th, Assists per 90 53rd, Minutes, two years 66th, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 73rd, European club minutes 30th79thGoals53rdAssists66thMinutes42ndStarts73rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.18 this player0.08 midfielder median79th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2014
Peak
€3M
Oct 2025
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
28
5 club changes
May 2026€3MFC St. PauliValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, FC St. Pauli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-12-01€25kRacing FC Union Luxembourg
2015-07-10€50kRacing FC Union Luxembourg
2015-12-11€75kRacing FC Union Luxembourg
2016-07-21€75kRacing FC Union Luxembourg
2016-12-23€100kRacing FC Union Luxembourg
2017-07-15€100kF91 Dudelange
2018-02-08€125kF91 Dudelange
2018-08-02€175kF91 Dudelange
2019-01-08€275kF91 Dudelange
2019-07-19€275kF91 Dudelange
2020-01-15€500kF91 Dudelange
2020-04-08€400kF91 Dudelange
2020-10-16€700kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2021-03-17€550kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2021-06-07€550kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2021-11-24€1MHuddersfield Town
2022-05-13€1.5MHuddersfield Town
2022-10-27€1.5MNorwich City
2023-06-01€1MNorwich City
2023-12-15€800kFC St. Pauli
2024-03-22€600kFC St. Pauli
2024-06-06€500kFC St. Pauli
2024-12-20€500kFC St. Pauli
2025-03-27€750kFC St. Pauli
2025-06-05€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2025-10-14€3MFC St. Pauli
2025-12-19€3MFC St. Pauli
2026-05-27€3MFC St. Pauli

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.098

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 31% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sinani appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).