FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Roman

Lyopka

GKUkraine · FC Kudrivka

№ 345750Emerging €171k −0.13

Player dossierPremier Liha

RomanLyopka

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FC Kudrivka
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
29
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lyopka at €150k. Model A, which never saw Lyopka during training, estimates €171k: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €611k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.13A €171k▼ −1.40B €611k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
6
Minutes
540
Started
6/6
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lyopka…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €171k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Roman Lyopka's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 4th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 32nd4thMinutes62ndStarts21stRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Sept 2015
Peak
€200k
Dec 2025
Model target
€150k
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
7 club changes
Jun 2026€150kFC KudrivkaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €150k, FC Kudrivka. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-26€25kZirka Kirovograd
2016-07-21€100kZirka Kropyvnytskyi
2017-01-03€100kZirka Kropyvnytskyi
2017-06-26€100kZirka Kropyvnytskyi
2018-01-12€100kZirka Kropyvnytskyi
2018-08-09€100kZirka Kropyvnytskyi
2018-12-02€50kZirka Kropyvnytskyi
2019-09-14€50kIngulets Petrove
2019-12-18€50kIngulets Petrove
2020-08-18€50kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2021-07-27€50kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2021-12-06€50kKryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2022-05-18€50kSK Cesky Brod
2022-12-06€125kKarpaty Lviv
2023-06-21€100kKarpaty Lviv
2023-12-11€100kKudrivka-Nyva Buzova
2024-06-06€100kKudrivka-Nyva Buzova
2024-12-17€75kFC Kudrivka
2025-06-10€100kFC Kudrivka
2025-12-18€200kFC Kudrivka
2026-06-02€150kFC Kudrivka

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.128

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 4% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 6% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lyopka appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).