FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Jens

Odgaard

AMDenmark · Bologna FC 1909

№ 345590Elite €9.9M +0.19

Player dossierSerie A

JensOdgaard

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Bologna FC 1909
League
Serie A
Nationality
Denmark
Age
27
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Odgaard at €12M. Model A, which never saw Odgaard during training, estimates €9.9M: the market value is 21% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.19A €9.9M▲ +0.10B €10.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
78
Minutes
4,228
Goals
13
Assists
7
Started
49/78
Min / app
54
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Odgaard…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €9.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jens Odgaard's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 70th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 38th, Minutes, last 365 days 65th, European club minutes 76th92ndGoals70thAssists77thMinutes38thStarts65thRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.28 this player0.08 midfielder median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2016
Peak
€15M
Dec 2025
Model target
€12M
May 2026
Valuations
27
9 club changes
May 2026€12MBologna FC 1909Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €12M, Bologna FC 1909. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-12€100kLyngby Boldklub
2016-12-12€100kLyngby Boldklub
2017-06-21€300kLyngby Boldklub
2018-06-30€800kInter Milan Primavera
2018-10-12€2MUS Sassuolo
2018-12-20€2MUS Sassuolo
2019-06-06€1.8MUS Sassuolo
2019-12-18€2.5MSC Heerenveen
2020-04-08€2.3MSC Heerenveen
2020-08-25€2.2MUS Sassuolo
2020-12-28€1.5MFC Lugano
2021-06-24€1.3MDelfino Pescara 1936
2021-10-04€1MRKC Waalwijk
2022-01-05€1.3MRKC Waalwijk
2022-03-17€2MRKC Waalwijk
2022-06-08€2MRKC Waalwijk
2022-09-14€3.5MAZ Alkmaar
2022-11-11€6MAZ Alkmaar
2023-06-23€6MAZ Alkmaar
2023-10-17€4.5MAZ Alkmaar
2023-12-15€4MAZ Alkmaar
2024-06-05€4.5MBologna FC 1909
2024-12-18€7MBologna FC 1909
2025-03-25€12MBologna FC 1909
2025-06-17€12MBologna FC 1909
2025-12-23€15MBologna FC 1909
2026-05-29€12MBologna FC 1909

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.193

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 69% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Odgaard appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).