FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Anton Stach

Anton

Stach

DMGermany · Leeds United

№ 344069Elite €22.7M +0.21

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AntonStach

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Leeds United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Germany
Age
27
Height
194 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Stach at €28M. Model A, which never saw Stach during training, estimates €22.7M: the market value is 24% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.21A €22.7M▲ +1.04B €9.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
73
Minutes
5,887
Goals
7
Assists
5
Started
67/73
Min / app
81
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Stach…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €28M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €28MModel A €22.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Anton Stach's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 58th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 80th, European club minutes 70th58thGoals42ndAssists94thMinutes89thStarts80thRecent70thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,887 this player2,607 midfielder median94th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Aug 2017
Peak
€28M
Jun 2026
Model target
€28M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
5 club changes
Jun 2026€28MLeeds UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €28M, Leeds United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-02€25kSSV Jeddeloh II
2017-09-27€50kSSV Jeddeloh II
2018-02-09€75kSSV Jeddeloh II
2018-08-08€100kVfL Wolfsburg II
2019-02-24€75kVfL Wolfsburg II
2019-07-28€75kVfL Wolfsburg II
2020-02-20€125kVfL Wolfsburg II
2020-07-15€200kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-02-08€500kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-03-29€1MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-06-16€2.5MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-10-07€3.5M1.FSV Mainz 05
2021-12-22€4M1.FSV Mainz 05
2022-03-24€8M1.FSV Mainz 05
2022-06-09€13M1.FSV Mainz 05
2022-11-09€15M1.FSV Mainz 05
2023-06-22€15M1.FSV Mainz 05
2023-12-14€15MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-05-29€15MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-12-20€12MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-03-27€14MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-06-05€14MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-10-17€20MLeeds United
2025-12-09€20MLeeds United
2026-03-09€25MLeeds United
2026-06-03€28MLeeds United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.211

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 69% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Stach appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).