FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Sergiy

Kosovskyi

DMUkraine · Livyi Bereg Kyiv

№ 343316Emerging €297k −0.40

Player dossierPremier Liha

SergiyKosovskyi

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Livyi Bereg Kyiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
27
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Kosovskyi at €200k. Model A, which never saw Kosovskyi during training, estimates €297k: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €961k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €297k▼ −1.57B €961k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
1,737
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
18/29
Min / app
60
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kosovskyi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €297k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Sergiy Kosovskyi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 29th, Minutes, two years 30th, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 23rd, European club minutes 30th10thGoals29thAssists30thMinutes37thStarts23rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

62% this player69% midfielder median37th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2018
Peak
€300k
Jun 2024
Model target
€200k
Dec 2025
Valuations
14
4 club changes
Dec 2025€200kLivyi Bereg KyivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €200k, Livyi Bereg Kyiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-02€25kObolon-Brovar Kyiv
2019-06-16€50kObolon-Brovar Kyiv
2020-08-18€50kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2020-12-05€50kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2021-06-17€25kAgrobiznes Volochysk
2021-12-06€50kVPK-Agro
2022-05-18€50kVPK-Agro
2022-12-06€25kObolon Kyiv
2023-06-21€100kObolon Kyiv
2023-12-11€200kObolon Kyiv
2024-06-06€300kObolon Kyiv
2024-12-17€200kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2025-06-10€200kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2025-12-18€200kLivyi Bereg Kyiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.396

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 10% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 3% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kosovskyi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).