FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Oliver Burke

Oliver

Burke

CFScotland · 1.FC Union Berlin

№ 341317Established €5.2M −0.54

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

OliverBurke

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
1.FC Union Berlin
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Scotland
Age
29
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Burke at €3M. Model A, which never saw Burke during training, estimates €5.2M: the market value is 42% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.54A €5.2M▲ +0.29B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
58
Minutes
2,739
Goals
12
Assists
2
Started
31/58
Min / app
47
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Burke…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €5.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Oliver Burke's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 76th, Assists per 90 20th, Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 28th76thGoals20thAssists62ndMinutes41stStarts66thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.39 this player0.26 attacker median76th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2015
Peak
€12M
Oct 2017
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
29
10 club changes
May 2026€3M1.FC Union BerlinValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, 1.FC Union Berlin. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-24€100kNottingham Forest
2016-04-20€250kNottingham Forest
2016-09-01€5MRB Leipzig
2016-10-13€10MRB Leipzig
2017-02-07€10MRB Leipzig
2017-06-19€7MRB Leipzig
2017-10-23€12MWest Bromwich Albion
2018-01-02€12MWest Bromwich Albion
2018-05-28€10MWest Bromwich Albion
2019-09-10€7.5MDeportivo Alavés
2019-12-20€6MDeportivo Alavés
2020-04-08€4.8MDeportivo Alavés
2020-10-13€5.5MSheffield United
2021-03-18€5MSheffield United
2021-06-08€6MSheffield United
2021-11-24€5MSheffield United
2022-05-13€4.5MMillwall FC
2022-11-09€3MSV Werder Bremen
2023-06-01€2.5MMillwall FC
2023-10-27€2.2MBirmingham City
2023-12-21€2MBirmingham City
2024-05-24€2MBirmingham City
2024-10-09€1MSV Werder Bremen
2024-12-20€1MSV Werder Bremen
2025-03-27€1.8MSV Werder Bremen
2025-06-05€3MSV Werder Bremen
2025-10-14€4M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-12-19€4M1.FC Union Berlin
2026-05-27€3M1.FC Union Berlin

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.545

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 31% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Burke appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).