FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Alex

Král

CMCzech Republic · 1.FC Union Berlin

№ 337333Established €4M −0.46

Player dossierBundesliga

AlexKrál

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
1.FC Union Berlin
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Czech Republic
Age
28
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Král at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Král during training, estimates €4M: the market value is 37% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.59. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.46A €4M▼ −0.07B €2.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
3,209
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
31/60
Min / app
53
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Král…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Alex Král's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 19th, Minutes, two years 60th, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals19thAssists60thMinutes24thStarts11thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,209 this player2,607 midfielder median60th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Oct 2016
Peak
€10M
May 2021
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
34
8 club changes
May 2026€2.5M1.FC Union BerlinValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, 1.FC Union Berlin. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-10-21€75kSK Slavia Prague B
2017-04-15€100kFK Teplice
2017-06-10€150kFK Teplice
2017-10-07€300kFK Teplice
2017-12-21€450kFK Teplice
2018-07-14€550kFK Teplice
2018-10-29€600kFK Teplice
2018-12-30€800kFK Teplice
2019-04-30€1.5MSK Slavia Prague
2019-06-25€3.5MSK Slavia Prague
2019-09-10€6MSpartak Moscow
2019-12-23€7.5MSpartak Moscow
2020-04-08€6.7MSpartak Moscow
2020-07-29€7.5MSpartak Moscow
2020-10-19€8MSpartak Moscow
2020-12-29€9MSpartak Moscow
2021-05-28€10MSpartak Moscow
2021-12-23€8MWest Ham United
2022-03-29€7MWest Ham United
2022-06-15€7MWest Ham United
2022-09-21€5.5MFC Schalke 04
2022-11-09€4.5MFC Schalke 04
2023-03-29€5.5MFC Schalke 04
2023-06-22€7MFC Schalke 04
2023-10-18€10M1.FC Union Berlin
2023-12-14€7.5M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-05-29€5M1.FC Union Berlin
2024-10-11€6MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2024-12-27€6MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-06-09€6MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-10-14€5M1.FC Union Berlin
2025-12-19€4M1.FC Union Berlin
2026-03-20€2.5M1.FC Union Berlin
2026-05-27€2.5M1.FC Union Berlin

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.464

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 25% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Král appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).