FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Jorge

Pombo

AMSpain · AE Kifisia

№ 336747Emerging €434k −0.46

Player dossierSuper League

JorgePombo

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
AE Kifisia
League
Super League
Nationality
Spain
Age
32
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pombo at €275k. Model A, which never saw Pombo during training, estimates €434k: the market value is 37% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.58. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €425k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.46A €434k▼ −0.44B €425k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
2,261
Goals
6
Assists
3
Started
27/30
Min / app
75
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pombo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €275k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €275kModel A €434k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jorge Pombo's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 88th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 42nd, Starts 86th, Minutes, last 365 days 72nd, European club minutes 30th88thGoals60thAssists42ndMinutes86thStarts72ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.24 this player0.08 midfielder median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Aug 2017
Peak
€1.2M
Oct 2020
Model target
€275k
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
7 club changes
Jun 2026€275kAE KifisiaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €275k, AE Kifisia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-17€500kReal Zaragoza
2018-01-01€500kReal Zaragoza
2018-05-30€500kReal Zaragoza
2019-02-19€700kReal Zaragoza
2019-06-29€700kReal Zaragoza
2019-12-20€700kReal Zaragoza
2020-04-08€550kCádiz CF
2020-07-23€700kReal Zaragoza
2020-10-08€1.2MCádiz CF
2021-01-05€1.2MCádiz CF
2021-06-10€1MCádiz CF
2021-12-27€700kReal Oviedo
2022-06-29€500kReal Oviedo
2022-12-29€500kRacing Santander
2023-06-14€500kRacing Santander
2023-12-20€400kRacing Santander
2024-06-24€400kFC Andorra
2024-09-24€350kAE Kifisia
2024-12-27€300kAE Kifisia
2025-05-16€275kAE Kifisia
2025-12-12€275kAE Kifisia
2026-06-04€275kAE Kifisia

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.456

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 20% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€275kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€275kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pombo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).