AlessandroVogliacco

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: PAOK Thessaloniki
League: Super League
Nationality: Italy
Age: 27
Height: 186 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vogliacco at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Vogliacco during training, estimates €2.6M: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 38
Minutes: 2,781
Goals: 4
Assists: 0
Started: 33/38
Min / app: 73
Cards: 7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vogliacco…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.13 this player0.03 defender median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Nov 2015
Peak: €2.8M; Jun 2025
Model target: €2.5M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 21; 6 club changes

Jun 2026€2.5MPAOK ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, PAOK Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2015-11-25	€50k	Juventus Primavera
2016-06-07	€50k	Juventus Primavera
2017-06-26	€50k	Juventus Primavera
2018-06-30	€75k	Juventus Primavera
2019-01-17	€75k	Calcio Padova
2019-06-20	€75k	Pordenone Calcio
2019-12-30	€500k	Pordenone Calcio
2020-04-08	€450k	Pordenone Calcio
2020-08-21	€500k	Pordenone Calcio
2021-02-22	€1M	Pordenone Calcio
2021-06-24	€1.3M	Pordenone Calcio
2021-12-29	€1.5M	Benevento Calcio
2022-06-06	€1.5M	Benevento Calcio
2022-12-22	€1.3M	Genoa CFC
2023-06-12	€2M	Genoa CFC
2023-12-20	€2M	Genoa CFC
2024-06-05	€2M	Genoa CFC
2024-12-18	€2M	Genoa CFC
2025-06-17	€2.8M	Parma Calcio 1913
2025-12-12	€2.5M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2026-06-04	€2.5M	PAOK Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.047

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 83% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Vogliacco appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).