LiamHenderson

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Falkirk FC
League: Premiership
Nationality: Scotland
Age: 29
Height: 191 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Henderson at €150k. Model A, which never saw Henderson during training, estimates €429k: the market value is 65% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.86. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €667k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 34
Minutes: 3,099
Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Started: 34/34
Min / app: 91
Cards: 4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Henderson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €25k; Nov 2016
Peak: €150k; May 2026
Model target: €150k; May 2026
Valuations: 7; 2 club changes

May 2026€150kFalkirk FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €150k, Falkirk FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2016-11-07	€25k	Falkirk FC
2021-12-31	€100k	Arbroath FC
2024-10-04	€100k	Falkirk FC
2024-12-03	€100k	Falkirk FC
2025-06-17	€100k	Falkirk FC
2025-12-10	€100k	Falkirk FC
2026-05-20	€150k	Falkirk FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −1.051

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 18% of the 311 Premiership players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 3% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Henderson appears

TerminalPremiership in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremiership on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).