FairValue

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Ahmed

Touba

CBAlgeria · Panathinaikos

№ 325924Established €5.1M −0.71

Player dossierSuper League

AhmedTouba

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Panathinaikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Algeria
Age
28
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Touba at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Touba during training, estimates €5.1M: the market value is 51% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.71A €5.1M▼ −0.88B €6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
5,242
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
59/60
Min / app
87
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Touba…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €5.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ahmed Touba's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 52nd, Assists per 90 36th, Minutes, two years 86th, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 93rd, European club minutes 92nd52ndGoals36thAssists86thMinutes93rdStarts93rdRecent92ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,245 this player1,687 defender median93rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jan 2017
Peak
€3.3M
Jun 2023
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
8 club changes
Jun 2026€2.5MPanathinaikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, Panathinaikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-01-21€150kFC Brügge U21
2017-06-06€600kFC Brügge U21
2018-01-09€600kClub Brugge KV
2018-06-03€600kClub Brugge KV
2018-09-14€500kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2019-01-18€350kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2019-06-10€300kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2020-02-02€300kBeroe
2020-10-14€300kRKC Waalwijk
2021-01-06€600kRKC Waalwijk
2021-05-19€1MRKC Waalwijk
2022-01-05€1MRKC Waalwijk
2022-06-08€1MRKC Waalwijk
2022-09-13€3MBasaksehir FK
2022-10-27€3MBasaksehir FK
2023-03-14€3.2MBasaksehir FK
2023-06-08€3.3MBasaksehir FK
2023-10-11€2.8MUS Lecce
2023-12-20€2MUS Lecce
2024-06-05€1.6MUS Lecce
2024-12-11€2.2MKV Mechelen
2025-06-12€2.5MKV Mechelen
2025-09-23€2MPanathinaikos
2025-12-12€2.5MPanathinaikos
2026-06-04€2.5MPanathinaikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.711

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 83% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Touba appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).