FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Viktor Gyökeres

Viktor

Gyökeres

CFSweden · Arsenal FC

№ 325443World Class €92.2M −0.35

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

ViktorGyökeres

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Sweden
Age
28
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gyökeres at €65M. Model A, which never saw Gyökeres during training, estimates €92.2M: the market value is 29% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €77.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.35A €92.2M▼ −0.18B €77.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
99
Minutes
7,182
Goals
70
Assists
13
Started
80/99
Min / app
73
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gyökeres…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €65M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €65MModel A €92.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Viktor Gyökeres's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 100th, Assists per 90 56th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 84th100thGoals56thAssists99thMinutes84thStarts98thRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.88 this player0.26 attacker median100th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jul 2017
Peak
€75M
Dec 2024
Model target
€65M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
8 club changes
Jun 2026€65MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €65M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-14€300kIF Brommapojkarna
2017-11-20€500kIF Brommapojkarna
2019-09-25€500kFC St. Pauli
2019-12-13€750kFC St. Pauli
2020-04-02€900kFC St. Pauli
2020-04-08€800kFC St. Pauli
2020-07-15€1MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-10-15€1MSwansea City
2021-03-10€800kCoventry City
2021-06-08€1MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-11-24€2.5MCoventry City
2022-05-13€5MCoventry City
2022-10-27€5MCoventry City
2023-03-24€8MCoventry City
2023-06-01€13MCoventry City
2023-09-29€32MSporting CP
2023-12-27€45MSporting CP
2024-03-08€55MSporting CP
2024-06-06€65MSporting CP
2024-10-08€70MSporting CP
2024-12-19€75MSporting CP
2025-05-30€75MSporting CP
2025-12-09€70MArsenal FC
2026-03-09€65MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€65MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.349

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 93% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€65MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 98% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€65MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gyökeres appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).