FairValue

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Arnaud

Nordin

RWFrance · Stade Rennais FC

№ 324811Established €5.5M −0.32

Player dossierLigue 1

ArnaudNordin

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Stade Rennais FC
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
France
Age
27
Height
170 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nordin at €4M. Model A, which never saw Nordin during training, estimates €5.5M: the market value is 27% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.32A €5.5M▲ +0.70B €2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
2,406
Goals
5
Assists
3
Started
27/48
Min / app
50
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nordin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €5.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Arnaud Nordin's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 32nd, Assists per 90 36th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 46th, Minutes, last 365 days 45th, European club minutes 57th32ndGoals36thAssists54thMinutes46thStarts45thRecent57thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% attacker median57th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jan 2017
Peak
€8M
Jun 2024
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
5 club changes
Jun 2026€4MStade Rennais FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Stade Rennais FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-01-16€500kAS Saint-Étienne
2017-06-01€600kAS Saint-Étienne
2018-05-16€600kAS Nancy-Lorraine
2018-09-06€800kAS Saint-Étienne
2018-10-24€1.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2018-12-17€1.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2019-06-03€3.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2019-12-19€5MAS Saint-Étienne
2020-04-08€4.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2020-10-15€5MAS Saint-Étienne
2021-01-07€4.5MAS Saint-Étienne
2021-06-04€5MAS Saint-Étienne
2021-12-16€4MAS Saint-Étienne
2022-05-30€4MAS Saint-Étienne
2022-11-02€4MMontpellier HSC
2023-03-27€5MMontpellier HSC
2023-06-27€7MMontpellier HSC
2023-12-18€7MMontpellier HSC
2024-06-03€8MMontpellier HSC
2024-12-10€8MMontpellier HSC
2025-03-27€6M1.FSV Mainz 05
2025-06-05€5M1.FSV Mainz 05
2025-12-19€4M1.FSV Mainz 05
2026-06-01€4MStade Rennais FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.317

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 37% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nordin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).