FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Jérémy

Livolant

RWFrance · Casa Pia AC

№ 324806Established €2.1M +0.18

Player dossierLiga Portugal

JérémyLivolant

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Casa Pia AC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
France
Age
28
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Livolant at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Livolant during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 20% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.18A €2.1M▼ −0.37B €3.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
59
Minutes
4,591
Goals
7
Assists
13
Started
52/59
Min / app
78
Cards
3Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Livolant…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jérémy Livolant's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 84th, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 92nd, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 28th21stGoals84thAssists87thMinutes92ndStarts92ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

88% this player59% attacker median92nd percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2016
Peak
€2.5M
Apr 2023
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
25
6 club changes
May 2026€2.5MCasa Pia ACValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, Casa Pia AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-02-04€50kEA Guingamp B
2017-01-16€150kEA Guingamp
2017-06-01€150kEA Guingamp
2019-01-08€300kLB Châteauroux
2019-06-27€400kLB Châteauroux
2019-09-30€500kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-01-06€900kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-04-08€800kFC Sochaux-Montbéliard
2020-11-11€1MEA Guingamp
2021-06-25€1.2MEA Guingamp
2021-10-27€1MEA Guingamp
2021-12-27€1MEA Guingamp
2022-06-02€1.3MEA Guingamp
2022-10-28€2.2MEA Guingamp
2023-04-06€2.5MEA Guingamp
2023-06-16€2.5MEA Guingamp
2023-10-27€2MFC Girondins Bordeaux
2023-12-13€1.5MFC Girondins Bordeaux
2024-06-11€1.5MFC Girondins Bordeaux
2024-12-19€1MCasa Pia AC
2025-03-31€1.2MCasa Pia AC
2025-05-30€1.5MCasa Pia AC
2025-12-18€2MCasa Pia AC
2026-03-19€2.5MCasa Pia AC
2026-05-28€2.5MCasa Pia AC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.181

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 64% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 48% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Livolant appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).