Dani
Ceballos
CMSpain · Real Madrid
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierLaLiga
DaniCeballos
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Real Madrid
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 179 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Ceballos at €7M. Model A, which never saw Ceballos during training, estimates €12.2M: the market value is 43% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 67
- Minutes
- 2,856
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 29/67
- Min / app
- 43
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ceballos…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
25% this player0% midfielder median91st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €2M
- Jan 2015
- Peak
- €45M
- Sept 2019
- Model target
- €7M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 37
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €7M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-08 | €2M | Real Betis B |
| 2015-07-01 | €2.5M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2015-09-20 | €5M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2016-02-22 | €5M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2016-07-15 | €6M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2017-01-24 | €6M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2017-06-05 | €10M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2017-08-17 | €17M | Real Madrid |
| 2018-01-01 | €17M | Real Madrid |
| 2018-03-22 | €12M | Real Madrid |
| 2018-05-30 | €12M | Real Madrid |
| 2018-10-31 | €20M | Real Madrid |
| 2018-12-21 | €20M | Real Madrid |
| 2019-06-11 | €30M | Real Madrid |
| 2019-09-12 | €45M | Arsenal FC |
| 2019-12-10 | €40M | Arsenal FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €32M | Arsenal FC |
| 2020-10-13 | €32M | Arsenal FC |
| 2021-03-18 | €30M | Arsenal FC |
| 2021-06-08 | €27M | Arsenal FC |
| 2021-10-13 | €20M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-12-30 | €18M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-03-21 | €15M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-06-03 | €14M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-11-07 | €9M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-03-23 | €12M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-06-13 | €12M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-12-22 | €9M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-03-21 | €8M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-06-07 | €6M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-10-11 | €4M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-12-27 | €4M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-03-21 | €10M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-06-09 | €10M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-10-02 | €8M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-12-12 | €8M | Real Madrid |
| 2026-06-05 | €7M | Real Madrid |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.558
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ceballos appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- LewandowskiCFFC Barcelona · LaLiga€7M
- NgongeRWRCD Espanyol Barcelona · LaLiga€7M
- SolerCMReal Sociedad · LaLiga€7M
- VallesGKReal Betis Balompié · LaLiga€7M
- CristanteDMAS Roma · midfielders€7M
- WinksDMLeicester City · midfielders€7M
- TaliscaAMFenerbahce · midfielders€7M
- MoroDMBologna FC 1909 · midfielders€7M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).