RomainPerraud

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club: LOSC Lille
League: Ligue 1
Nationality: France
Age: 28
Height: 173 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Perraud at €7M. Model A, which never saw Perraud during training, estimates €11.4M: the market value is 38% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.62. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 73
Minutes: 5,241
Goals: 5
Assists: 7
Started: 59/73
Min / app: 72
Cards: 13Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Perraud…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,916 this player1,687 defender median87th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €150k; Oct 2017
Peak: €12M; Mar 2023
Model target: €7M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 24; 6 club changes

Jun 2026€7MLOSC LilleValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €7M, LOSC Lille. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2017-10-12	€150k	OGC Nice
2018-01-24	€150k	OGC Nice
2018-06-04	€150k	OGC Nice
2019-01-08	€800k	Paris FC
2019-06-03	€1.5M	Paris FC
2019-09-27	€2.5M	Stade Brestois 29
2019-12-19	€2.5M	Stade Brestois 29
2020-04-08	€2M	Stade Brestois 29
2020-10-15	€5M	Stade Brestois 29
2021-01-07	€8M	Stade Brestois 29
2021-06-04	€8M	Stade Brestois 29
2021-10-05	€10M	Southampton FC
2021-12-23	€8M	Southampton FC
2022-06-15	€8M	Southampton FC
2022-11-03	€10M	Southampton FC
2023-03-16	€12M	Southampton FC
2023-06-20	€12M	Southampton FC
2023-12-18	€9M	OGC Nice
2024-03-19	€6M	OGC Nice
2024-06-03	€5M	OGC Nice
2024-12-27	€5M	Real Betis Balompié
2025-06-09	€5M	Real Betis Balompié
2025-12-15	€7M	LOSC Lille
2026-06-01	€7M	LOSC Lille

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.485

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 54% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 76% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Perraud appears

TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).