FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of David Raum

David

Raum

LBGermany · RB Leipzig

№ 318204Elite €14.3M +0.56

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

DavidRaum

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
RB Leipzig
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
28
Height
181 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Raum at €25M. Model A, which never saw Raum during training, estimates €14.3M: the market value is 75% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.56A €14.3M▲ +1.28B €6.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
5,216
Goals
4
Assists
15
Started
60/63
Min / app
83
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Raum…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €14.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

David Raum's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 74th, Assists per 90 98th, Minutes, two years 86th, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 87th, European club minutes 67th74thGoals98thAssists86thMinutes85thStarts87thRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.26 this player0.04 defender median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€125k
Jan 2017
Peak
€26M
Sept 2022
Model target
€25M
May 2026
Valuations
28
3 club changes
May 2026€25MRB LeipzigValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €25M, RB Leipzig. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-01-23€125kSpVgg Greuther Fürth U19
2017-06-27€125kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2018-01-22€350kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2018-06-19€600kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2019-01-08€600kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2019-06-12€500kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2019-12-13€450kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2020-04-08€400kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2020-11-18€800kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-02-08€3MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-03-29€3.5MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-06-16€5MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2021-10-07€8.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-12-22€12MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-03-24€17MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-06-09€20MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-09-21€26MRB Leipzig
2022-11-09€26MRB Leipzig
2023-03-29€20MRB Leipzig
2023-06-22€14MRB Leipzig
2023-12-14€17MRB Leipzig
2024-05-29€20MRB Leipzig
2024-10-09€25MRB Leipzig
2024-12-20€25MRB Leipzig
2025-06-05€20MRB Leipzig
2025-12-19€20MRB Leipzig
2026-03-20€22MRB Leipzig
2026-05-27€25MRB Leipzig

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.559

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 87% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Raum appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).