FairValue

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Nikola

Moro

DMCroatia · Bologna FC 1909

№ 316934Established €9.5M −0.31

Player dossierSerie A

NikolaMoro

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Bologna FC 1909
League
Serie A
Nationality
Croatia
Age
28
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moro at €7M. Model A, which never saw Moro during training, estimates €9.5M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.31A €9.5M▼ −0.77B €15.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
4,463
Goals
2
Assists
4
Started
49/76
Min / app
59
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €9.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nikola Moro's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 29th, Assists per 90 44th, Minutes, two years 81st, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 85th, European club minutes 91st29thGoals44thAssists81stMinutes41stStarts85thRecent91stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

25% this player0% midfielder median91st percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€700k
Mar 2017
Peak
€9M
Dec 2021
Model target
€7M
May 2026
Valuations
22
2 club changes
May 2026€7MBologna FC 1909Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7M, Bologna FC 1909. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-03-13€700kGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2017-10-23€1.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2018-03-18€2.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2018-09-25€2.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2019-03-11€2.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2019-09-16€4.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2019-12-27€6.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2020-04-08€5.8MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2020-07-27€6MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2020-12-29€7MDynamo Moscow
2021-06-02€7MDynamo Moscow
2021-09-15€8MDynamo Moscow
2021-12-29€9MDynamo Moscow
2022-06-02€9MDynamo Moscow
2022-11-11€7MBologna FC 1909
2023-06-15€6.5MBologna FC 1909
2023-12-20€6.5MBologna FC 1909
2024-06-05€5MBologna FC 1909
2024-12-18€5MBologna FC 1909
2025-06-17€4.5MBologna FC 1909
2025-12-23€6.5MBologna FC 1909
2026-05-29€7MBologna FC 1909

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.307

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 55% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).