FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Alessandro Bastoni

Alessandro

Bastoni

CBItaly · Inter Milan

№ 315853World Class €48.3M +0.30

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

AlessandroBastoni

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Inter Milan
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
27
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bastoni at €65M. Model A, which never saw Bastoni during training, estimates €48.3M: the market value is 34% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €52.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.30A €48.3M▲ +0.22B €52.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
96
Minutes
7,316
Goals
4
Assists
12
Started
89/96
Min / app
76
Cards
20Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bastoni…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €65M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €65MModel A €48.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Alessandro Bastoni's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 96th, European club minutes 93rd63rdGoals88thAssists99thMinutes78thStarts96thRecent93rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,316 this player2,860 defender median99th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Oct 2016
Peak
€80M
Mar 2025
Model target
€65M
May 2026
Valuations
29
3 club changes
May 2026€65MInter MilanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €65M, Inter Milan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-10-17€75kAtalanta Primavera
2017-03-28€800kAtalanta BC
2017-06-08€1.5MAtalanta BC
2017-10-13€2.5MAtalanta BC
2017-12-29€2.5MAtalanta BC
2018-06-07€2.5MAtalanta BC
2018-12-20€7.5MParma Calcio 1913
2019-03-01€15MParma Calcio 1913
2019-06-06€15MParma Calcio 1913
2019-12-12€23MInter Milan
2020-03-03€35MInter Milan
2020-04-08€31.5MInter Milan
2020-08-25€45MInter Milan
2020-12-29€50MInter Milan
2021-03-23€55MInter Milan
2021-05-25€60MInter Milan
2021-12-28€60MInter Milan
2022-06-07€60MInter Milan
2022-11-11€55MInter Milan
2023-06-15€60MInter Milan
2023-12-20€60MInter Milan
2024-03-12€70MInter Milan
2024-06-05€70MInter Milan
2024-12-18€75MInter Milan
2025-03-25€80MInter Milan
2025-06-17€80MInter Milan
2025-12-23€80MInter Milan
2026-03-24€70MInter Milan
2026-05-29€65MInter Milan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.296

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

4th highest observed value among 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€65MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 99% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€65MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bastoni appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).