FairValue

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Daniil

Lesovoy

LWRussia · FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

№ 315252Emerging €955k +0.23

Player dossierPremier Liga

DaniilLesovoy

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
28
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lesovoy at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Lesovoy during training, estimates €955k: the market value is 26% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.23A €955k▼ −0.59B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
1,670
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
21/30
Min / app
56
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lesovoy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €955k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Daniil Lesovoy's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 26th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 36th, Starts 68th, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 28th26thGoals17thAssists36thMinutes68thStarts62ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

70% this player59% attacker median68th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€125k
Dec 2016
Peak
€5M
Dec 2020
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
24
6 club changes
May 2026€1.2MFC Pari Nizhniy NovgorodValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-12-02€125kZenit St. Petersburg II
2017-06-01€125kZenit 2 St. Petersburg
2018-06-06€175kZenit 2 St. Petersburg
2018-09-03€300kArsenal Tula
2018-12-20€600kArsenal Tula
2019-06-14€750kArsenal Tula
2019-12-23€1.5MArsenal Tula
2020-04-08€1.3MArsenal Tula
2020-07-29€1.8MArsenal Tula
2020-10-19€2.5MDynamo Moscow
2020-12-29€5MDynamo Moscow
2021-06-02€5MDynamo Moscow
2021-12-29€5MDynamo Moscow
2022-06-02€4MDynamo Moscow
2022-11-21€2.8MDynamo Moscow
2023-04-13€2.5MDynamo Moscow
2023-06-14€2MDynamo Moscow
2023-12-13€1.8MDynamo Moscow
2024-04-05€1.5MMaccabi Haifa
2024-06-17€1.5MMaccabi Haifa
2024-12-09€1.5MAEL Limassol
2025-05-29€1.5MAEL Limassol
2025-12-16€1.5MFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2026-05-26€1.2MFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.229

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 51% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lesovoy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).