FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Azor Matusiwa

Azor

Matusiwa

DMNetherlands · Ipswich Town

№ 315145Elite €5.5M +0.69

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AzorMatusiwa

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Ipswich Town
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
27
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Matusiwa at €11M. Model A, which never saw Matusiwa during training, estimates €5.5M: the market value is 99% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.99. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.69A €5.5M▲ +1.66B €2.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
3,337
Goals
2
Assists
4
Started
37/47
Min / app
71
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Matusiwa…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €11M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €11MModel A €5.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Azor Matusiwa's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 36th, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 68th, Minutes, last 365 days 37th, European club minutes 63rd36thGoals55thAssists63rdMinutes68thStarts37thRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

79% this player69% midfielder median68th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Nov 2016
Peak
€13M
Mar 2024
Model target
€11M
Dec 2025
Valuations
27
6 club changes
Dec 2025€11MIpswich TownValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €11M, Ipswich Town. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-11-21€25kAjax Amsterdam U19
2017-02-02€50kAjax Amsterdam U19
2017-06-21€75kAjax Amsterdam U19
2018-03-01€100kAjax Amsterdam U21
2018-06-29€150kAjax Amsterdam U21
2019-03-13€550kDe Graafschap Doetinchem
2019-06-12€1MDe Graafschap Doetinchem
2019-12-16€1MFC Groningen
2020-04-08€900kFC Groningen
2020-08-12€3MFC Groningen
2020-10-14€3.5MFC Groningen
2021-01-06€5MFC Groningen
2021-05-19€5MFC Groningen
2021-12-16€5MStade Reims
2022-03-23€6MStade Reims
2022-05-30€7MStade Reims
2022-11-02€6MStade Reims
2023-06-27€7.5MStade Reims
2023-10-16€9MStade Reims
2023-12-18€10MStade Reims
2024-03-19€13MStade Rennais FC
2024-06-03€12MStade Rennais FC
2024-12-10€12MStade Rennais FC
2025-03-24€10MStade Rennais FC
2025-06-03€8MStade Rennais FC
2025-10-06€11MIpswich Town
2025-12-03€11MIpswich Town

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.686

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 35% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€11MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€11MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Matusiwa appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).