FairValue

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Portrait of Lukas Nmecha

Lukas

Nmecha

CFGermany · Leeds United

№ 314288Elite €13.6M −0.31

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

LukasNmecha

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Leeds United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Germany
Age
27
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nmecha at €10M. Model A, which never saw Nmecha during training, estimates €13.6M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.31A €13.6M▲ +0.30B €7.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
1,935
Goals
10
Assists
3
Started
18/57
Min / app
34
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nmecha…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €13.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Lukas Nmecha's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 84th, Assists per 90 47th, Minutes, two years 43rd, Starts 12th, Minutes, last 365 days 57th, European club minutes 28th84thGoals47thAssists43rdMinutes12thStarts57thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.47 this player0.26 attacker median84th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Sept 2018
Peak
€18M
Dec 2021
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
5 club changes
Jun 2026€10MLeeds UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Leeds United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-09-24€500kPreston North End
2019-02-27€1MPreston North End
2019-12-17€4MVfL Wolfsburg
2020-02-27€4MMiddlesbrough FC
2020-04-08€3.6MMiddlesbrough FC
2020-10-16€4.5MRSC Anderlecht
2021-01-04€8MRSC Anderlecht
2021-06-07€12MRSC Anderlecht
2021-12-22€18MVfL Wolfsburg
2022-06-09€18MVfL Wolfsburg
2022-11-09€18MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-03-29€14MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-06-22€12MVfL Wolfsburg
2023-12-14€9MVfL Wolfsburg
2024-03-27€7MVfL Wolfsburg
2024-05-29€5MVfL Wolfsburg
2024-12-20€4MVfL Wolfsburg
2025-03-27€3MVfL Wolfsburg
2025-06-05€3MVfL Wolfsburg
2025-10-17€5MLeeds United
2025-12-09€8MLeeds United
2026-03-09€10MLeeds United
2026-06-03€10MLeeds United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.306

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 77% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nmecha appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).