Davíd Kristján
Ólafsson
LBIceland · AE Larisa
Player dossierSuper League
Davíd KristjánÓlafsson
LBLeft-BackDefender
- Club
- AE Larisa
- League
- Super League
- Nationality
- Iceland
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 184 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 4 Jun 2026
Super LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Ólafsson at €450k. Model A, which never saw Ólafsson during training, estimates €380k: the market value is 18% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €382k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 9
- Minutes
- 710
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 8/9
- Min / app
- 79
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ólafsson…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
89% this player83% defender median66th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Oct 2015
- Peak
- €650k
- Dec 2024
- Model target
- €450k
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €450k, AE Larisa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-10 | €25k | Breidablik Kópavogur |
| 2017-01-01 | €75k | Breidablik Kópavogur |
| 2017-10-15 | €75k | Breidablik Kópavogur |
| 2018-12-15 | €125k | Breidablik Kópavogur |
| 2019-12-29 | €100k | Aalesunds FK |
| 2020-07-25 | €200k | Aalesunds FK |
| 2020-12-31 | €200k | Aalesunds FK |
| 2022-01-03 | €300k | Aalesunds FK |
| 2022-06-24 | €450k | Kalmar FF |
| 2022-09-02 | €500k | Kalmar FF |
| 2022-12-14 | €600k | Kalmar FF |
| 2023-06-27 | €500k | Kalmar FF |
| 2023-12-08 | €500k | Kalmar FF |
| 2024-06-07 | €500k | Cracovia |
| 2024-12-09 | €650k | Cracovia |
| 2025-06-06 | €650k | Cracovia |
| 2025-12-08 | €500k | Cracovia |
| 2026-06-04 | €450k | AE Larisa |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.169
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Super League356 players · median €600k
Valued above 35% of the 356 Super League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 17% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ólafsson appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MagnússonCBLevadiakos · Super League€450k
- OzegovicCFLevadiakos · Super League€450k
- DeligiannidisRBAsteras Aktor · Super League€450k
- KotsarisGKPanathinaikos · Super League€450k
- CresswellLBStoke City · defenders€450k
- GrétarssonCBSönderjyske Fodbold · defenders€450k
- JohanssonCBHolstein Kiel · defenders€450k
- VlietinckRBOud-Heverlee Leuven · defenders€450k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).