FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Brais

Méndez

AMSpain · Real Sociedad

№ 309110Established €7.4M +0.08

Player dossierLaLiga

BraisMéndez

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Real Sociedad
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
29
Height
187 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Méndez at €8M. Model A, which never saw Méndez during training, estimates €7.4M: the market value is 8% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.08A €7.4M▼ −0.39B €11.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
4,561
Goals
14
Assists
7
Started
56/75
Min / app
61
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Méndez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €7.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Brais Méndez's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 67th, Minutes, two years 82nd, Starts 60th, Minutes, last 365 days 59th, European club minutes 83rd92ndGoals67thAssists82ndMinutes60thStarts59thRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.28 this player0.08 midfielder median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2016
Peak
€40M
Dec 2023
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
31
2 club changes
Jun 2026€8MReal SociedadValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, Real Sociedad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-24€100kCelta Vigo B
2016-10-27€200kCelta Vigo B
2017-02-02€250kCelta Vigo B
2017-06-30€250kCelta Vigo B
2018-01-01€500kCelta Vigo B
2018-03-22€1MCelta Vigo B
2018-05-30€3.5MCelta Vigo B
2018-10-31€6MCelta de Vigo
2018-12-21€20MCelta de Vigo
2019-06-11€20MCelta de Vigo
2019-12-20€17.5MCelta de Vigo
2020-03-05€15MCelta de Vigo
2020-04-08€12MCelta de Vigo
2020-10-08€11MCelta de Vigo
2021-01-05€12MCelta de Vigo
2021-06-10€14MCelta de Vigo
2021-12-30€14MCelta de Vigo
2022-03-21€18MCelta de Vigo
2022-06-03€18MCelta de Vigo
2022-09-23€22MReal Sociedad
2022-11-07€30MReal Sociedad
2023-06-13€25MReal Sociedad
2023-10-13€30MReal Sociedad
2023-12-22€40MReal Sociedad
2024-06-07€40MReal Sociedad
2024-12-27€35MReal Sociedad
2025-03-21€28MReal Sociedad
2025-06-09€22MReal Sociedad
2025-10-02€18MReal Sociedad
2025-12-12€12MReal Sociedad
2026-06-05€8MReal Sociedad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.081

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 68% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 74% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Méndez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).