FairValue

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Nikolay

Komlichenko

CFRussia · Lokomotiv Moscow

№ 300538Established €3.4M −0.12

Player dossierPremier Liga

NikolayKomlichenko

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Lokomotiv Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
30
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Komlichenko at €3M. Model A, which never saw Komlichenko during training, estimates €3.4M: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €3.4M▼ −0.43B €4.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
73
Minutes
4,245
Goals
19
Assists
10
Started
46/73
Min / app
58
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Komlichenko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Nikolay Komlichenko's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 77th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 84th, Starts 57th, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 28th77thGoals74thAssists84thMinutes57thStarts66thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,245 this player2,242 attacker median84th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
May 2014
Peak
€6M
Mar 2020
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
33
7 club changes
May 2026€3MLokomotiv MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, Lokomotiv Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-05-08€200kFC Krasnodar 2
2014-07-31€200kFC Krasnodar 2
2016-01-06€250kFC Krasnodar 2
2016-05-25€400kFC Krasnodar 2
2016-08-03€400kFC Slovan Liberec
2016-10-16€500kFC Slovan Liberec
2016-12-19€700kFC Slovan Liberec
2017-06-01€500kFC Krasnodar
2017-12-21€450kFK Mlada Boleslav
2018-06-06€400kFK Mlada Boleslav
2018-10-29€800kFK Mlada Boleslav
2018-12-30€1.8MFK Mlada Boleslav
2019-04-30€2.5MFK Mlada Boleslav
2019-06-25€3.5MFK Mlada Boleslav
2019-09-25€3.7MFK Mlada Boleslav
2019-12-07€5.5MFK Mlada Boleslav
2020-03-30€6MDinamo Moscow
2020-04-08€4.8MDinamo Moscow
2020-07-29€5MDynamo Moscow
2020-12-29€5MDynamo Moscow
2021-04-13€4.5MDynamo Moscow
2021-06-02€3.5MDynamo Moscow
2021-12-29€3MFC Rostov
2022-06-02€3MFC Rostov
2022-09-12€3.5MFC Rostov
2022-11-21€5MFC Rostov
2023-06-14€5MFC Rostov
2023-12-13€4.5MFC Rostov
2024-06-04€4MFC Rostov
2024-12-12€4MFC Rostov
2025-06-04€3.5MFC Rostov
2025-12-16€3.8MLokomotiv Moscow
2026-05-26€3MLokomotiv Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.124

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 77% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Komlichenko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).