FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Leandro

Garate

CFArgentina · AE Larisa

№ 300308Emerging €247k −0.09

Player dossierSuper League

LeandroGarate

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
AE Larisa
League
Super League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
32
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Garate at €225k. Model A, which never saw Garate during training, estimates €247k: the market value is 9% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €268k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.09A €247k▼ −0.18B €268k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
1,094
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
11/24
Min / app
46
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Garate…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €225k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €225kModel A €247k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Leandro Garate's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 47th, Assists per 90 25th, Minutes, two years 22nd, Starts 28th, Minutes, last 365 days 42nd, European club minutes 28th47thGoals25thAssists22ndMinutes28thStarts42ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.25 this player0.26 attacker median47th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2014
Peak
€1.2M
Dec 2023
Model target
€225k
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
9 club changes
Jun 2026€225kAE LarisaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €225k, AE Larisa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-02-10€50kClub Atlético Tigre
2015-07-14€150kClub Atlético Tigre
2016-02-06€200kClub Atlético Tigre
2016-08-08€150kClub Atlético Tigre
2016-12-18€100kSandefjord Fotball
2019-04-28€375kArsenal FC
2019-12-02€300kAC Barnechea
2021-03-11€250kCoquimbo Unido
2021-10-22€350kCoquimbo Unido
2022-03-28€400kUnión Española
2022-06-16€450kUnión Española
2022-11-15€600kUnión Española
2023-04-04€600kUnión Española
2023-07-20€1MUnión Española
2023-12-13€1.2MUnión Española
2024-03-11€1MCA Huracán
2024-06-12€750kCA Huracán
2024-12-13€650kCA Banfield
2025-04-02€350kCA Huracán
2025-06-02€250kCA Huracán
2025-12-12€250kAE Larisa
2026-06-04€225kAE Larisa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.093

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 14% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€225kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 6% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€225kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Garate appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).