FairValue

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Portrait of Oli McBurnie

Oli

McBurnie

CFScotland · Hull City

№ 298477Established €2.3M +0.09

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

OliMcBurnie

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Hull City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Scotland
Age
29
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values McBurnie at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw McBurnie during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.09A €2.3M▲ +0.54B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
2,720
Goals
9
Assists
8
Started
30/49
Min / app
56
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McBurnie…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €2.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Oli McBurnie's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 86th, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 28th57thGoals86thAssists61stMinutes54thStarts43rdRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.26 this player0.15 attacker median86th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2014
Peak
€15M
Oct 2020
Model target
€2.5M
Dec 2025
Valuations
25
4 club changes
Dec 2025€2.5MHull CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €2.5M, Hull City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-09-23€50kBradford City
2015-10-14€250kSwansea City
2017-06-28€250kSwansea City
2017-10-23€500kSwansea City
2018-01-02€1MSwansea City
2018-09-24€4MSwansea City
2019-02-27€5MSwansea City
2019-06-28€8MSwansea City
2019-09-12€12MSheffield United
2019-12-10€10MSheffield United
2020-04-08€8MSheffield United
2020-07-30€12MSheffield United
2020-10-13€15MSheffield United
2021-03-18€12MSheffield United
2021-06-08€10MSheffield United
2021-11-24€7MSheffield United
2022-05-13€5MSheffield United
2022-10-27€5MSheffield United
2023-06-01€5MSheffield United
2023-12-19€4.5MSheffield United
2024-05-27€4.5MSheffield United
2024-12-27€3.5MUD Las Palmas
2025-03-21€2.5MUD Las Palmas
2025-06-09€2.5MUD Las Palmas
2025-12-03€2.5MHull City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.093

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 11% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 48% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where McBurnie appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).