FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Pelle

Clement

CMNetherlands · Sparta Rotterdam

№ 297693Emerging €931k −0.44

Player dossierEredivisie

PelleClement

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Sparta Rotterdam
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
30
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Clement at €600k. Model A, which never saw Clement during training, estimates €931k: the market value is 36% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.44A €931k▼ −1.42B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
3,460
Goals
4
Assists
10
Started
40/61
Min / app
57
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Clement…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €931k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Pelle Clement's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 65th, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 57th, European club minutes 30th57thGoals93rdAssists65thMinutes43rdStarts57thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.26 this player0.09 midfielder median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
May 2015
Peak
€1M
Dec 2019
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
25
5 club changes
May 2026€600kSparta RotterdamValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Sparta Rotterdam. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-05-09€25kAjax Amsterdam U19
2015-07-01€25kAjax Amsterdam U21
2016-02-05€100kAjax Amsterdam U21
2016-07-01€125kAjax Amsterdam U21
2017-02-02€350kAjax Amsterdam U21
2017-06-07€350kAjax Amsterdam U21
2018-02-27€350kReading FC
2018-09-24€350kReading FC
2019-03-13€700kPEC Zwolle
2019-06-12€900kPEC Zwolle
2019-12-18€1MPEC Zwolle
2020-04-08€800kPEC Zwolle
2020-10-14€800kPEC Zwolle
2021-05-19€800kPEC Zwolle
2022-01-05€700kPEC Zwolle
2022-06-08€700kPEC Zwolle
2022-11-11€700kRKC Waalwijk
2023-06-23€700kRKC Waalwijk
2023-12-15€700kSparta Rotterdam
2024-05-31€900kSparta Rotterdam
2024-12-17€900kSparta Rotterdam
2025-03-28€700kSparta Rotterdam
2025-05-28€650kSparta Rotterdam
2025-12-02€650kSparta Rotterdam
2026-05-28€600kSparta Rotterdam

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.440

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 28% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Clement appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).