FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Zisis

Karachalios

DMGreece · OFI Crete

№ 295744Emerging €884k −0.39

Player dossierSuper League

ZisisKarachalios

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
OFI Crete
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
30
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Karachalios at €600k. Model A, which never saw Karachalios during training, estimates €884k: the market value is 32% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.39A €884k▼ −0.55B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
4,166
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
47/56
Min / app
74
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Karachalios…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €884k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Zisis Karachalios's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 30th, Assists per 90 25th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 77th, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 30th30thGoals25thAssists77thMinutes77thStarts61stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

84% this player69% midfielder median77th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Nov 2014
Peak
€600k
Jun 2022
Model target
€600k
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
3 club changes
Jun 2026€600kOFI CreteValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €600k, OFI Crete. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-11-11€100kOlympiacos Piraeus U20
2016-10-01€150kLevadiakos
2016-12-21€150kLevadiakos
2017-05-11€200kLevadiakos
2017-12-18€250kLevadiakos
2018-05-22€250kLevadiakos
2018-12-07€300kLevadiakos
2019-05-21€300kLevadiakos
2021-03-08€350kLevadiakos
2021-05-21€400kLevadiakos
2021-11-01€500kPAS Giannina
2022-06-09€600kPAS Giannina
2022-11-07€600kPAS Giannina
2023-05-22€600kPAS Giannina
2023-12-20€600kPAS Giannina
2024-05-30€500kPAS Giannina
2024-12-18€500kOFI Crete
2025-05-23€600kOFI Crete
2025-12-12€600kOFI Crete
2026-06-04€600kOFI Crete

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.387

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 49% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Karachalios appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).