FairValue

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Portrait of Taiwo Awoniyi

Taiwo

Awoniyi

CFNigeria · Nottingham Forest

№ 295313Established €6.4M +0.22

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

TaiwoAwoniyi

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Nottingham Forest
League
Premier League
Nationality
Nigeria
Age
28
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Awoniyi at €8M. Model A, which never saw Awoniyi during training, estimates €6.4M: the market value is 24% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.22A €6.4M▲ +1.18B €2.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
1,328
Goals
6
Assists
2
Started
11/50
Min / app
27
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Awoniyi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €6.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Taiwo Awoniyi's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 77th, Assists per 90 45th, Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 5th, Minutes, last 365 days 15th, European club minutes 28th77thGoals45thAssists28thMinutes5thStarts15thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.41 this player0.26 attacker median77th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Sept 2015
Peak
€30M
Oct 2023
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
8 club changes
Jun 2026€8MNottingham ForestValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-03€300kFSV Frankfurt
2016-02-11€300kFSV Frankfurt
2016-07-01€300kLiverpool FC
2017-01-18€350kNEC Nijmegen
2017-06-07€400kNEC Nijmegen
2018-01-09€800kRoyal Excel Mouscron (-2022)
2018-03-30€1.2MRoyal Excel Mouscron (-2022)
2018-06-03€1.5MRoyal Excel Mouscron (-2022)
2018-12-27€1.5MKAA Gent
2019-03-04€2MRoyal Excel Mouscron (-2022)
2019-06-10€4.5MRoyal Excel Mouscron (-2022)
2019-12-17€4M1.FSV Mainz 05
2020-04-08€3.2M1.FSV Mainz 05
2021-02-10€4.5M1.FC Union Berlin
2021-06-09€5M1.FC Union Berlin
2021-10-07€8M1.FC Union Berlin
2021-12-22€15M1.FC Union Berlin
2022-06-09€20M1.FC Union Berlin
2022-11-03€20MNottingham Forest
2023-06-20€25MNottingham Forest
2023-10-09€30MNottingham Forest
2023-12-19€28MNottingham Forest
2024-05-27€28MNottingham Forest
2024-12-16€22MNottingham Forest
2025-03-18€18MNottingham Forest
2025-05-30€16MNottingham Forest
2025-10-17€14MNottingham Forest
2025-12-09€12MNottingham Forest
2026-03-09€9MNottingham Forest
2026-06-03€8MNottingham Forest

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.217

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 27% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 74% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Awoniyi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).