FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Oskar

Buur

RBDenmark · Lyngby Boldklub

№ 293283Emerging €541k −0.18

Player dossierSuperliga

OskarBuur

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Lyngby Boldklub
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
27
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Buur at €450k. Model A, which never saw Buur during training, estimates €541k: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €449k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.18A €541k▲ 0.00B €449k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
19
Minutes
1,489
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
18/19
Min / app
78
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Buur…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €541k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Oskar Buur's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 83rd, Minutes, last 365 days 9th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists23rdMinutes83rdStarts9thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

95% this player83% defender median83rd percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2015
Peak
€500k
Dec 2020
Model target
€450k
Dec 2025
Valuations
18
6 club changes
Dec 2025€450kLyngby BoldklubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €450k, Lyngby Boldklub. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-03-25€100kAarhus GF
2015-09-02€100kAarhus GF
2016-01-21€100kAarhus GF
2016-08-12€100kAarhus GF
2016-12-12€100kAarhus GF
2017-06-21€100kAarhus GF
2020-10-13€100kWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-12-17€500kWolverhampton Wanderers
2021-06-23€300kGrasshopper Club Zurich
2021-12-23€300kWolverhampton Wanderers
2022-06-23€250kFC Volendam
2022-11-11€250kFC Volendam
2023-06-23€350kFC Volendam
2023-12-15€400kFC Volendam
2024-05-31€400kFC Volendam
2024-10-16€350kWithout Club
2025-06-16€350kLyngby Boldklub
2025-12-18€450kLyngby Boldklub

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.183

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 23% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 17% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Buur appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).