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Portrait of Jacob Bruun Larsen

Jacob Bruun

Larsen

LWDenmark · Burnley FC

№ 293281Established €10.9M −1.00

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

Jacob BruunLarsen

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Burnley FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Denmark
Age
27
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Larsen at €4M. Model A, which never saw Larsen during training, estimates €10.9M: the market value is 63% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.73. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.00A €10.9M▼ −1.01B €11M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
2,416
Goals
3
Assists
6
Started
24/65
Min / app
37
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Larsen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €10.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jacob Bruun Larsen's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 16th, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 17th, Minutes, last 365 days 45th, European club minutes 73rd16thGoals77thAssists54thMinutes17thStarts45thRecent73rdEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.22 this player0.15 attacker median77th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jul 2017
Peak
€20M
Dec 2018
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
9 club changes
Jun 2026€4MBurnley FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-12€250kBorussia Dortmund
2017-12-28€500kBorussia Dortmund
2018-06-05€500kVfB Stuttgart
2018-08-22€1.5MBorussia Dortmund
2018-10-22€15MBorussia Dortmund
2018-12-18€20MBorussia Dortmund
2019-06-05€15MBorussia Dortmund
2019-12-17€12MBorussia Dortmund
2020-04-08€11MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2020-09-16€8MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-03-17€6.4MRSC Anderlecht
2021-06-07€5.5MRSC Anderlecht
2021-10-07€6.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2021-12-22€6.5MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-06-09€6MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2022-11-09€4MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-06-22€3MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2023-12-19€3MBurnley FC
2024-05-27€8MBurnley FC
2024-10-09€6MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2024-12-20€6MTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-06-05€5MVfB Stuttgart
2025-12-09€5MBurnley FC
2026-06-03€4MBurnley FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.004

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Larsen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).