FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Wout Faes

Wout

Faes

CBBelgium · AS Monaco

№ 292808Elite €7.9M +0.24

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLigue 1

WoutFaes

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
AS Monaco
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Belgium
Age
28
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Faes at €10M. Model A, which never saw Faes during training, estimates €7.9M: the market value is 27% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.24A €7.9M▲ +0.78B €4.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
4,475
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
49/54
Min / app
83
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Faes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €7.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Wout Faes's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 56th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 76th, Starts 71st, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 65th56thGoals17thAssists76thMinutes71stStarts41stRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,475 this player2,860 defender median76th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€350k
Jul 2016
Peak
€20M
Nov 2022
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
6 club changes
Jun 2026€10MAS MonacoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, AS Monaco. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-15€350kRSC Anderlecht
2017-01-21€350kRSC Anderlecht
2017-06-07€350kSC Heerenveen
2018-01-17€400kSBV Excelsior
2018-03-27€700kSBV Excelsior
2018-06-12€800kSBV Excelsior
2018-09-11€1MKV Oostende (-2024)
2018-12-27€2MKV Oostende (-2024)
2019-06-10€2.5MKV Oostende (-2024)
2019-09-13€3MKV Oostende (-2024)
2019-12-13€3MKV Oostende (-2024)
2020-04-08€2.7MKV Oostende (-2024)
2020-10-15€3MStade Reims
2021-01-07€4MStade Reims
2021-04-09€7MStade Reims
2021-06-04€7MStade Reims
2021-12-16€8MStade Reims
2022-05-30€10MStade Reims
2022-09-15€15MLeicester City
2022-11-03€20MLeicester City
2023-06-20€20MLeicester City
2023-12-21€20MLeicester City
2024-05-24€20MLeicester City
2024-12-16€20MLeicester City
2025-05-30€15MLeicester City
2025-10-06€14MLeicester City
2025-12-03€12MLeicester City
2026-03-27€10MAS Monaco
2026-06-01€10MAS Monaco

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.237

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 66% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Faes appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).