Eric
Smith
CBSweden · FC St. Pauli
Player dossierBundesliga
EricSmith
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- FC St. Pauli
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Sweden
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Smith at €5M. Model A, which never saw Smith during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 53% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 64
- Minutes
- 5,674
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 63/64
- Min / app
- 89
- Cards
- 11Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Smith…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
98% this player83% defender median93rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Jun 2015
- Peak
- €6M
- Oct 2025
- Model target
- €5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 28
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €5M, FC St. Pauli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2015-06-14 | €250k | Halmstads BK |
| 2015-11-29 | €300k | Halmstads BK |
| 2016-06-17 | €300k | IFK Norrköping |
| 2016-12-11 | €200k | IFK Norrköping |
| 2017-06-20 | €200k | IFK Norrköping |
| 2017-11-17 | €500k | IFK Norrköping |
| 2018-06-20 | €750k | IFK Norrköping |
| 2018-12-27 | €750k | KAA Gent |
| 2019-06-10 | €700k | KAA Gent |
| 2019-12-29 | €600k | Tromsø IL |
| 2020-04-08 | €475k | KAA Gent |
| 2020-08-05 | €1M | IFK Norrköping |
| 2020-12-10 | €1.5M | IFK Norrköping |
| 2021-03-29 | €1.2M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2021-06-16 | €1.2M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2021-12-15 | €1.2M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2022-06-16 | €1M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2022-11-30 | €1.2M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2023-06-28 | €1.5M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2023-10-20 | €2.5M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2023-12-15 | €2.8M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2024-03-22 | €3.5M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2024-06-06 | €4M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2024-12-20 | €5M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-06-05 | €5M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-10-14 | €6M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-12-19 | €5M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2026-05-27 | €5M | FC St. Pauli |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.426
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 46% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Smith appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OrbánCBRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€5M
- GinterCBSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€5M
- GuerreiroLBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€5M
- VavroCBVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€5M
- TarkowskiCBEverton FC · defenders€5M
- LindelöfCBAston Villa · defenders€5M
- MartínLBGenoa CFC · defenders€5M
- NicolaisenCBFC Toulouse · defenders€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).