FairValue

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Rochinha

LWPortugal · FC Famalicão

№ 290336Emerging €437k +0.14

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Rochinha

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
FC Famalicão
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
31
Height
169 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rochinha at €500k. Model A, which never saw Rochinha during training, estimates €437k: the market value is 15% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €457k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €437k▲ +0.09B €457k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
905
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
12/23
Min / app
39
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rochinha…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €437k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Rochinha's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 32nd, Minutes, two years 16th, Starts 38th, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 28th3rdGoals32ndAssists16thMinutes38thStarts2ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

52% this player59% attacker median38th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Sept 2015
Peak
€3.5M
Sept 2022
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
31
6 club changes
May 2026€500kFC FamalicãoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, FC Famalicão. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-15€200kStandard de Liège U21
2015-10-22€400kStandard de Liège U21
2016-02-07€300kStandard de Liège U21
2016-07-15€200kStandard de Liège U21
2017-02-22€200kBoavista FC
2017-06-26€200kBoavista FC
2017-11-06€400kBoavista FC
2018-02-07€600kBoavista FC
2018-06-13€600kBoavista FC
2019-01-11€900kBoavista FC
2019-06-07€1.3MVitória Guimarães SC
2019-10-11€1.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2019-12-30€1.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2020-04-08€1.2MVitória Guimarães SC
2020-08-17€1MVitória Guimarães SC
2021-01-28€1.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2021-03-23€3MVitória Guimarães SC
2021-05-21€3MVitória Guimarães SC
2021-12-27€3MVitória Guimarães SC
2022-05-31€3MVitória Guimarães SC
2022-09-16€3.5MSporting CP
2022-11-01€3.5MSporting CP
2023-03-02€2.5MSporting CP
2023-06-16€2MSporting CP
2023-11-27€1.8MAl-Markhiya SC
2024-03-15€1.8MKasimpasa
2024-05-31€1.5MKasimpasa
2024-12-19€1.5MFC Famalicão
2025-05-30€1MFC Famalicão
2025-12-18€600kFC Famalicão
2026-05-28€500kFC Famalicão

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.135

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 20% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 15% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rochinha appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).