FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Jens

Stage

CMDenmark · SV Werder Bremen

№ 289835Elite €9.9M +0.34

Player dossierBundesliga

JensStage

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
SV Werder Bremen
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
29
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Stage at €14M. Model A, which never saw Stage during training, estimates €9.9M: the market value is 41% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.41. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.34A €9.9M▲ +0.88B €5.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
4,909
Goals
20
Assists
7
Started
58/60
Min / app
82
Cards
15Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Stage…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €14M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €14MModel A €9.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jens Stage's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 97th, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 85th, Starts 96th, Minutes, last 365 days 79th, European club minutes 30th97thGoals63rdAssists85thMinutes96thStarts79thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.37 this player0.08 midfielder median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2016
Peak
€14M
Jun 2025
Model target
€14M
May 2026
Valuations
28
3 club changes
May 2026€14MSV Werder BremenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €14M, SV Werder Bremen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-01-21€50kBrabrand IF
2016-08-12€100kAarhus GF
2016-12-12€200kAarhus GF
2017-06-21€300kAarhus GF
2017-12-18€300kAarhus GF
2018-06-02€500kAarhus GF
2018-12-21€500kAarhus GF
2019-06-08€1MAarhus GF
2019-09-09€2MFC Copenhagen
2019-12-22€3MFC Copenhagen
2020-04-08€2.4MFC Copenhagen
2020-07-31€3MFC Copenhagen
2020-12-23€2MFC Copenhagen
2021-06-04€2.5MFC Copenhagen
2021-10-06€3MFC Copenhagen
2021-12-28€3.5MFC Copenhagen
2022-06-20€3.5MFC Copenhagen
2022-09-21€4MSV Werder Bremen
2022-11-09€3.5MSV Werder Bremen
2023-06-22€5MSV Werder Bremen
2023-12-14€6MSV Werder Bremen
2024-03-27€7.5MSV Werder Bremen
2024-05-29€7.5MSV Werder Bremen
2024-10-09€9MSV Werder Bremen
2024-12-20€12MSV Werder Bremen
2025-06-05€14MSV Werder Bremen
2025-12-19€14MSV Werder Bremen
2026-05-27€14MSV Werder Bremen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.344

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 74% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€14MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€14MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Stage appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).